Violence between Israelis and Palestinians has been ongoing for several months. Many people fear that it has not yet reached its boiling point.
On Thursday, Israeli planes bombarded the Gaza Strip in response to rocket fire. It is being said that a few hours before the bombing, rockets were fired from the same Palestinian area toward southern Israel.
According to the Israeli military, the planes targeted a weapons manufacturing facility and a Hamas military compound in Gaza.
But the exchange was preceded by an attack by Israeli forces in the town of Nablus on Wednesday, the deadliest in the West Bank since a 2005 accord with the Palestinian Authority, in which 11 Palestinians were killed. . Among these dead, six militants and five civilians were killed while one hundred people were injured.
This incident was preceded by another similar attack in late January when Israeli soldiers entered Jenin to arrest a "terrorist unit" of Islamic Jihad. The squad, he accused, was involved in "planning and carrying out numerous and large-scale terrorist attacks" against Israeli civilians and soldiers.
Nine Palestinians lost their lives in this operation. This number was the highest since 2005. The attack was followed by a Palestinian shooting at a Jewish synagogue in Jerusalem, killing seven Israelis.
These incidents are some of the flashpoints that show the atmosphere of violence that has strained Israeli-Palestinian relations in recent times.
Cycle of violence
Shooting violence in Israel and the West Bank increased significantly in 2022, making it the deadliest year since the end of the second intifada in 2005.
Last year, Israeli forces killed 151 Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, nearly double the number recorded in 2021. Meanwhile, Palestinian militants have killed 31 Israelis.
In the year 2022, Palestinian militants fired about 300 rounds at Israeli soldiers. If compared to the year 2021, there has been a significant increase as according to the figures of the Israeli authorities only 61 rounds of bullets were fired this year compared to 31 in 2020.
About 60 Palestinians have been killed so far in 2023, including both militants and civilians. Along with this, 10 Israelis and one Ukrainian have also been killed in it.
However, attacks by Palestinian militants in Israel and raids and arrests by Israeli forces in the West Bank have increased over the past year. The Israelis say they are trying to stop militant attacks.
This vicious cycle has politicians and experts worried that the situation is getting out of hand.
In November 2022, the United Nations Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, Thor Weinzland, condemned the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians as moving towards a new crisis.
"After decades of continued violence, expansion of illegal settlements, dysfunctional negotiations, and increasing incidents of occupation, the conflict is once again reaching a climax," he said.
In an interview with the BBC in early February, Weinsland warned that the violence between Israelis and Palestinians was at a critical point and called for "strong" diplomatic intervention to stop the bloodshed.
But this surge in violence has certain characteristics that distinguish it from previous cycles of violence in this part of the world.
No peace, no hope
Attacks on civilians on both sides have fueled violence, and in such a context, the prospect of lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians seems remote.
A two-state solution has been overdue by the international community for decades, and neither side believes the other has a sincere interest in achieving a lasting deal.
Daniel Byman, a fellow professor at the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and the Brookings Institution's Center on Middle East Policy, said in an article published this month in the journal Foreign Affairs: There was hope in the late 1990s, but since then both sides have become more and more skeptical.'
"Palestinians point to the growing Israeli occupation and ever-expanding settlements as evidence that Israel does not want to leave the West Bank," Naho added. Israelis see the violence of the second intifada and the takeover of Hamas after the withdrawal from Gaza as evidence that concessions, including the withdrawal of Gaza, will fill the region with violence.
A weak authority
Adding to the shared distrust of diplomatic options is the predicament the Palestinian Authority (PA) is going through.
As UN Special Coordinator Tor Wensland has highlighted, the PA faces significant institutional challenges, including a significant democratic vacuum, as it has not held elections since 2006, meaning that more than half of potential Palestinians Voters between the ages of 18 and 35 have never had the chance to vote.
Also included is the fact that the PA does not have enough resources to meet the growing needs of the Palestinian population. Along with this, some of the governments that were providing financial support to them have stopped the assistance based on various reasons.
Wensland said in his interview with the BBC that almost no donor money was going to the Palestinian Authority and that had to change.
"If you can't pay the salaries of government employees, if you can't provide health services, if you can't buy medicine, if you can't fund schools, then you are in a very serious situation," he said. '
He added that the United Nations has programs for both Gaza and the West Bank controlled by Hamas, but it cannot fill the gap. The United Nations cannot accept this responsibility. We cannot govern Palestine. We have no option or alternative to having a functioning Palestinian Authority.
Daniel Byman pointed out that 87-year-old Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas not only lacks a democratic mandate but would lose the election if voted on.
Dissatisfaction
"There is widespread dissatisfaction with the Palestinian Authority," he wrote. Israeli military operations and settler provocations undermine the legitimacy of the Palestinian Authority, revealing the organization to be weak at best or a pawn of Israel at worst. The increase in settlements shows that the Palestinian Authority is complicit in Israel's growing control of the West Bank, or at least has no way of resisting it.'
This weakness of the PA is also evident in the fact that it has lost some control over the cities of Jenin and Nablus, where a new generation of armed militants is emerging.
This, in part, explains the increase in attacks against Israel, as many have been executed by these groups.
One of these organizations is the Lion's Den. It is a group that has emerged in Nablus since mid-2022 and is known to carry out attacks against Israeli soldiers, settlements, and checkpoints.
Its members are young people who are affiliated with traditional Palestinian organizations such as Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, or the Popular Front for Palestine Liberation, but who claim to be detached from the conflict between Palestinians and focused on fighting Israel. choose to do
The Israeli raid on Wednesday was aimed at arresting three Palestinian militants, two of whom, Muhammad Junaid and Hussam Islam, were actively involved in the activities of the Lion's Den, although they come from other organizations.
One such organization is the Jenin Brigades, which emerged in 2021.
Daniel Byman warns that apparently controlling the violence of these types of organizations may make it more difficult.
A radical Israeli government
But if the Palestinian Authority has weakened, Israel has also had a far-right government.
After the November 2022 elections, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu formed a government with the far-right Religious Zionist Alliance, including the leader of the ultra-nationalist Azmi Yehudiyid (Jewish Power) party Itmar Ben Ghafir in the cabinet. , who was appointed Minister of National Security, in charge of police in Israel and the occupied West Bank.
The politician is a supporter of Jewish settlement and has previously been convicted of inciting racism and supporting a Jewish terrorist group.
Another controversial cabinet member is Batsalil Samutresh. He is the new finance minister who previously led the radical resettlement movement.
Baiman warns in his Foreign Affairs article that this government in Israel is likely to enrage the Palestinians. Additionally, he pointed out that settler attacks against Palestinians are frequent.
"Netanyahu formed a new government that put settlers, political extremists, and racists in key positions to oversee the West Bank. All of this would have led to an inevitable and desperate outcome more than ever. There is a threat of a third intifada.
Thus, the situation on both sides in the Palestinian territories and in Israel emphasizes the possibility of escalation of violence without the presence of political conditions to reach a compromise, thus blocking the possibility of a resumption of meaningful peace talks.