During the last few months, Pakistan has been suffering from a continuous political and economic crisis. Meanwhile, nearly a third of the country has been flooded, the Pakistani rupee continues to weaken, foreign exchange reserves continue to dwindle, and dozens of people have been killed in deadly TTP attacks.
Pakistan's friendly countries are also waiting for an agreement with the IMF at a time when, according to the latest UNICEF report, nearly 4 million children in the country are still living near contaminated flood water, which threatens their health. There are risks.
If you listen to the news inside Pakistan, there is talk of a situation like Sri Lanka. The question is, how much should the neighboring country India be concerned about such a situation of Pakistan armed with nuclear weapons and can India help Pakistan?
In a recent podcast with Smita Prakash on news agency ANI, India's Foreign Minister S Jaishankar said on Pakistan's current crisis, "Pakistan's future largely depends on Pakistan's actions and Pakistan's choice of options." depends on.'
He said that no one gets stuck in such a difficult situation suddenly and without any reason, now it depends on them what the way forward will be. Today, our relationship is not such that we are directly involved in this process.
S Jaishankar also said that if we compare it with Sri Lanka, I would say it is a completely different relationship. We have friendly relations with Sri Lanka.
At present, there is a fear of default in Pakistan. Defense Minister Asif Khawaja has said that Pakistan has defaulted.
However, in a conversation with BBC, Pakistani economist, and former Caretaker Finance Minister Salman Shah assured that Pakistan will be able to overcome the current situation.
Salman Shah said that 'we have to fix our economic system, there is a need to fix the style of governance, if this happens, Pakistan will slowly stand on its feet, if we talk about the long term, South Asia For, we need good economic relations with all neighboring countries.'
But the situation today is that the condition of Pakistan is very bad and the growing political bitterness is preventing things from improving.
Pak-India relations have been in cold storage for a long time and the list of disputes and grievances is long.
India's stance is that terrorism and dialogue cannot go together, and the invitation to Nawaz Sharif at Prime Minister Modi's swearing-in ceremony in 2014 and Narendra Modi's visit to Lahore in 2015 were examples of India's efforts to improve relations that failed. Extremist attacks like Pulwama show that Pakistan's attitude has not changed.
Meanwhile, Pakistan is angry with the removal of Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir.
Former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan compared RSS to Hitler's Nazi Party. After Indian action on Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan stopped trading with India, although this trade continues both officially and unofficially.
Business relations
According to economist Ajit Rana Dey, the annual trade between the two countries through Dubai is 15-20 billion dollars.
Dr. Nisha Taneja of the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations says that under its policy, India has imposed a 200 percent duty on imports from Pakistan but there is no restriction on exports.
According to him, Pakistan's official policy is to stop trade, but if the trade is happening, let it happen.
Nisha Taneja hopes that international agencies will help Pakistan and she does not think that India will help Pakistan financially.
"If Pakistan lifts the ban on trade, at least it can import cheap goods," she says
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When India offered financial assistance to Pakistan in the past
General elections are on the horizon in both countries. Therefore, the possibility of any kind of political activity between the two countries is very less.
Pakistan's Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto's scathing comments on Prime Minister Modi over the 2002 Gujarat riots have also dashed hopes of possible talks or improved relations.
However, if we look at the past, there are instances when India announced financial assistance to Pakistan.
In 2010, when Pakistan was devastated by floods, India announced financial assistance. Earlier, in 2005, after the earthquake disaster in Pakistan, India had promised financial assistance.
On the other hand, in 2001, Pakistan offered help to India after the Gujarat earthquake.
But last year, when nearly a third of Pakistan was affected by floods, India did not announce aid.
When Pakistan's Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto was asked in an interview whether he had asked for help from India on the disaster caused by the floods or whether India had offered help, he answered 'no' to both questions.
It should be remembered that after the earthquake in Turkey, India helped the country at a time when, despite Indian opposition, Turkey has been raising the Kashmir issue at international forums and its relations with Pakistan have strengthened.
India may consider helping Pakistan on humanitarian grounds
The news has come out in the Indian media with reference to the sources of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the country that if help is requested from Pakistan, then India will help, but no such statement has come out at the official level.
However, there is definitely a feeling in the circle that India should help Pakistan.
Economist Ajit Ranade, speaking to the BBC, said, "If we can give humanitarian aid to Sri Lanka, Syria, and Turkey, we should do the same for Pakistan."
He said that $50 million could be a good start. What harm can it do? We are the chairman of the G20. We want to be a global power and providing such support is in line with that thinking.
According to Ranade, India exports refined petrol and diesel worth 60 to 70 billion dollars to the world every year and Pakistan can benefit from this, which can increase trade between the two countries.
According to economist Ajit Ranade, 'India may consider helping Pakistan on humanitarian grounds, as there is a risk of people coming to India due to the worsening humanitarian situation in Pakistan.'
He says, 'Do you remember what happened in the Bangladesh war?'
"No Pakistani government will take help from India"
But is it right to put India-Sri Lanka and India-Pakistan relations on the same level?
According to Dr. Nisha Taneja, 'India has a history of aid and investment with Sri Lanka and there are channels between the two countries that have been used.'
But the most important question is whether Pakistan can request help from India.
In the context of the current political situation in Pakistan, this seems impossible.
Pakistani economist Salman Shah also has the same idea. According to him, in today's situation, 'no Pakistani government will take help from India.'
"I don't think it would be politically prudent for any government to seek any help or support from India," he says.
"It is not possible at present because the Indian government is not a friend of Pakistan from Pakistan's point of view."
On the other hand, in a Times of India podcast, when Pakistani defense expert Ayesha Siddiqa was asked about this, she said, "Afghanistan has been like hell for the world for years, Pakistan has played its role in it." But you don't want Pakistan to be included in this list.
She said that 'I know that there is very little support in Delhi for talks with Pakistan, maybe the thinking is to let this old enemy rot, let him burn in the fire of hell, but India needs to understand this. That it needs such intelligent people, who think about Pakistan.'
"I am not begging India for mercy, I am asking India not to close its eyes so that this old enemy neighbor does not destroy itself."
Ayesha Siddiqa said that 'as long as positive thinking emerges in Pakistan, India should also look at Pakistan with as much sympathy as possible.'
He said that they are not talking about giving financial help to Pakistan.
According to Ayesha, she is aware that 'there is a perception in Delhi and Washington that Pakistan has taken advantage of being a victim, but today the situation is alarming.'
Economist Ajit Rana Dey wrote in an article that the disintegration of nuclear-armed Pakistan is not good news for India.
An unstable Pakistan means more militant Islam and more anti-India venom, he writes. This means that India will have to invest more resources in defending its western border, thereby diverting resources from the Chinese border.
